From MSNBC

Election 2006 Polls - Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
Jon Tester (D) 48%
Conrad Burns (R) 45%
Undecided 5%
Other 2%

About this PollResults for likely voters in Montana are based on the subsample of 641 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2006 midterm election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Based on past voting history in Montana, turnout is assumed to be 50% of the voting age population.

Q&A: Mont. Senate Race Draws National Attention - Newsweek Politics - MSNBC.com
Tainted by the Jack Abramoff scandal, Montana’s incumbent senator Conrad Burns is facing his toughest reelection challenge to date from Democrat Jon Tester, a flat-topped organic farmer.

Daily Kos: MT-Sen: Burns endorses work by undocumented workers
Republican Sen. Conrad Burns, whose re-election campaign is pressing for tighter immigration controls, referred to his house painter as “a nice little Guatemalan man” and suggested that worker as well employees of a roofing company he hired might be in the country illegally.

“The other day, the little fella who does our maintenance work around the house, he’s from Guatemala, and I said, ‘Could I see your green card?’” Burns said at a June meeting recorded by Democrats. “And Hugo says, ‘No.’ I said, ‘Oh gosh.’”

Comments Haunt Another Senator
In a moment of unusual candor for a veteran senator fighting for his political life, Conrad Burns (R-Mont.) offered this blunt self-assessment a few months ago: “I can self-destruct in one sentence,” he told supporters. “Sometimes in one word.”

It seems Burns has spent a good part of the summer testing his theory.

A new video released this week by his Democratic challenger, Jon Tester, shows Burns, 71, joking to a crowd in June about how a “nice little Guatemalan man” fixing up his house might be an illegal immigrant. “Could I see your green card?” Burns tells the crowd he asked the man. “And Hugo, says, ‘No.’ I said, ‘Oh, gosh.’ ”

Election Poll 2006: Montana Senate
The most recent Rasmussen Reports election poll in Montana shows incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns and Democrat Jon Tester tied at 47% (see crosstabs). This month’s results mark an improvement for Burns, who trailed Tester by seven points in last month’s poll and by four points in May.

Tester’s support among fellow Democrats has slipped from 90% to 84%. Burns now gets 14% of the vote from Democrats, up from 7% a month ago.

BillingsGazette.com :: Minimum wage initiative qualifies for November ballot
HELENA — A ballot initiative that asks voters to approve a hike in the state’s minimum wage has qualified for the November ballot, the secretary of state said Wednesday.

Initiative 151 would raise the hourly minimum wage from $5.15 to $6.15 an hour starting in 2007, and would include future cost-of-living increases. I-151 would not change the $4 an hour minimum wage for a business whose annual gross sales are $110,000 or less.

MyDD :: Polls!
1. MT-Sen (Rasmussen, 7/6, 500 LV, 5/11 results in parenthesis):
Tester: 50 (44)
Burns: 43 (48)

Tester is facing a huge monetary deficit, so even with numbers this good and one of the nation’s best local people-powered movements behind him, the race cannot be considered a likely pickup yet. This is still a toss-up.

2. MO-Sen: (Rasmussen, 6/27, 500 LV, 5/8 results in parenthesis)
McCaskill: 42 (40)
Talent: 42 (43)

As good as these numbers look, again I have to caution against considering this race anything but a toss-up. While undecideds usually break to the challenger, McCaskill has a high name ID since she has held statewide office and since she was the Democratic nominee for Governor in 2004. Thus, in this case, the incumbent rule does not apply.

3. MA-Gov (State House News 6/28-30. Registered voters. MoE 5% overall, 7% for Democratic primary subsample. 3/16-28 results in parenthesis).
Democratic Primary
Patrick 35 (15)
Gabrielli 22 (25)
Reilly 19 (37)

General election matchups
Healey (R) 31 (31)
Patrick (D) 40 (29)
Mihos (I) 9 (15)

Montana Senate
Democrat Jon Tester leads Republican Senator Conrad Burns 50% to 43% making Burns the second most vulnerable Senator seeking re-election this year (Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum is still the most vulnerable). This is the first Rasmussen Reports election poll in Montana since Tester won his primary victory to become the Democrat’s nominee.

The Montana Standard - Butte, Montana USA
By the Standard State Bureau - 06/27/2006

HELENA — Delegates to the Montana AFL-CIO last weekend endorsed Democrats Jon Tester and Monica Lindeen for the U.S. Senate and House respectively, along with a host of other candidates, mostly Democrats.

Meeting in Great Falls for the AFL-CIO’s 50th annual convention, delegates also backed four candidates who are unopposed for re-election: Supreme Court justices Jim Rice and John Warner, Supreme Court Clerk Ed Smith and Public Service Commissioner Greg Jergeson.

“These candidates are serious about working to protect Montana’s working families,” said Jim McGarvey, executive secretary of the Montana AFL-CIO. “The congressional and legislative candidates we’ve endorsed want to promote a healthy, growing economy based on good wages, decent health insurance for all families and careful, sustained development of the state’s natural resources.” The AFL-CIO took no stand on the contested PSC District 5 race between Democrat Ken Toole and Republican Mike Taylor.

In legislative races, the AFL-CIO endorsed 90 candidates, 87 of whom were Democrats. The lone Republicans backed were Reps. Wayne Stahl of Saco, Alan Olson of Roundup and Sen. Dave Lewis of Helena.